25.09.2022
Since yesterday, messages about an alleged military coup in China and the arrest of the leadership began to spread on social networks and instant messengers. In certain circles, these fakes caused some excitement, but at the same time, few people thought – why would there be a coup d’état in China all of a sudden? It is noteworthy that the first messages on this topic came from little-known Indian sites (https://zeenews.india.com/india/military-coup-in-china-xi-jinping-under-house-arrest-general-li-qiao… next-president-say-social-media-rumours-2513977.html), then in the Russian-speaking space they were picked up by Ukrainian telegram channels (https://t.me/insiderUKR/42127) and websites (https://focus.ua/world/530524-smi-pishut-o-gosperevorote-v-kitae-i-areste-si-czinpina-kto-mozhet-zan…) with a dubious reputation (which may indicate a customer origin).
In addition, it is noteworthy that not a single popular and well-known international media published these rumors, which are easily confirmed by one call to Beijing to their permanent correspondents. But any political events in modern China immediately get on the front pages of CNN, BBC, France 24, Russia Today, Al Jazeera, Reuters, Associated Press, United Press International, Financial Times, etc. But this did not happen, because. publishing fakes is a blow to the reputation of any well-known mass media.
In general, history shows that coups d’etat do not occur “suddenly and unexpectedly”, there is always a set of reasons for such a crisis phenomenon. In this regard, in the context of rumors spread by certain forces, I wonder what internal prerequisites could lead to such critical events in China? What political force within the PRC could oppose the recognized national leader? The analysis shows that there are no real prerequisites for such a political scenario in China. This is evidenced, in particular, by the following facts.
Firstly, Xi Jinping has a strong political position – this is due to the fact that during the decade of his reign there were both achievements and difficult periods, from which he managed to lead his country without great losses, and even with certain acquisitions. This is a trade war with the United States at the suggestion of Trump, who, in fact, did not achieve his goal. This is the situation in the XUAR, where the threat of terrorism was neutralized in 5 years, and the region’s GDP grew significantly. This is a global pandemic, in which China was actively blamed for the first time, but in the end they could not prove their claims. As a result, China was the first to emerge from national quarantine (already in April 2020, while other countries of the world continued quarantine restrictions until 2021), and the only one that showed economic growth following the results of the pandemic 2020. Xi Jinping’s achievements in the development of the PRC within the country are not disputed (there is no such force inside China) and are his recognized political legacy, which determines the special status of the current chairman in the Chinese political system.
Secondly, despite the slowdown and the new normal, the Chinese economic situation looks very good. Under Xi Jinping, China has become the world’s second largest economy. In ten years, China’s GDP has grown from $8.532 trillion in 2012 to $16.94 trillion in 2021, or doubled. The share of China in the global economy has grown from 11.4% in 2012 to more than 18% in 2021. If we talk about GDP per capita, then in 2012 this figure was – 6,316 dollars, and in 2022 – 12,500 dollars. This reflects the real growth in the well-being of the Chinese population. In addition, last year the Chinese government announced that absolute poverty had been overcome in the country, more than 800 million people had been lifted out of poverty through the efforts of the state. Thus, in a society in which well-being is noticeably growing (and continues to grow), there are no reasons for social discontent and political claims against the country’s leadership.
Thirdly, during his reign in 2012-2022, Xi Jinping became not only a national leader, but also the political core of the ruling party – that is, a key political force and symbol around which the government and development of the state are built.
This was confirmed in early November 2021, when the 6th Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China of the 19th convocation was held in Beijing, at which the “third historical” resolution was adopted in the official party interpretation, which essentially formalized the leadership of the President of the PRC and the Secretary General The CCP of Xi Jinping ahead of the 20th Congress of the CCP scheduled for autumn 2022. In this context, the assignment of the status of the “third historic” resolution of the November Plenum has a very specific meaning and signifies the entry of the CPC into the newest stage of its development.
The resolution of the CPC Central Committee on the main achievements and historical experience of the party’s hundred-year struggle, consisting of more than 30,000 characters, is the third such document in the party’s 100-year history. In the history of China, the “first historical” resolution of the Plenum of the CPC Central Committee was adopted in 1945 under Mao Zedong and proclaimed a course towards the creation of the PRC. The “second historic” resolution was adopted under Deng Xiaoping and dates back to 1981, when Deng condemned the “cultural revolution” but at the same time paid tribute to Mao’s merits for the creation of the PRC and the beginning of the industrialization of the country.
The “historic third” resolution declared Xi to be the “core of the party” and not just the “core of
Central Committee”, as it was done in 2016, raising it to a historical level comparable to that of Mao and Deng. Xi, along with Mao, actually becomes another “number one person” in the party’s history, since his ideas about “socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era” included in the CCP charter are more relevant than Deng’s ideas about just socialism with Chinese characteristics,” related to the previous era. With such political support for the leader and the consensus of the elites, any coups are hardly possible.
Thus, it is obvious that another information war has begun against the PRC. This is mainly due to the future major political event – the 20th National Congress of the CPC, at which Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected as chairman of the PRC for a second term. Accordingly, competitors seek to take advantage of this event and, through media manipulation, put pressure on the political situation in this country and try to undermine the situation. It seems that there will be many more such fake stories and artificial manipulations, including after the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China.
Kazakhstan is interested in the Eastern neighbor to continue its stable political and economic development. As recorded in the Joint Statement of the PRC and Kazakhstan on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries on September 14, 2022:
“… The parties are unanimous that the history of the past 30 years convincingly demonstrates that the strengthening Chinese-Kazakh relations not only made a significant contribution to the development and prosperity of the two countries and the well-being of their peoples, but also contribute to maintaining long-term stability in the region … … The Kazakhstani side highly appreciates the historical achievements of the Chinese side in building a modernized socialist state and in the cause of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and believes with firm confidence that, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, China’s future development plans, aimed at realizing the socialist modernization of China by 2035 and making it a rich, powerful , democratic, cultural, harmonious, beautiful, modernized, socialist state in the middle of the 21st century, are timely and will be fully implemented … … The parties stressed the importance of maintaining political security and the security of power, as well as resolving ability to resist interference by external forces…” (https://dknews.kz/ru/okno-v-kitay/252979-sovmestnoe-zayavlenie-knr-i-kazahstana-po-sluchayu-30).
China Studies Center,
Astana, 2022
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