03.08.2022
The visit of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Chinese Taiwan (Kazakhstan recognizes Taiwan as part of the PRC) became the main news of the past week (https://ru.euronews.com/…/will-nancy-pelosi-go-along…). It was cynical, but Ukraine has been even forgot. The visit itself made so much noise around the world that even the stock markets grew noticeably, and the visit itself gave rise to a variety of humor and numerous memes on social networks. The media cited Pelosi’s every move, from boarding the plane, taking off, landing, getting off the plane, focusing on the covid mask on her face and other small details that were supposed to reflect some significance of this supposedly historic visit.
Everyone was waiting for the epic clash of global giants (https://www.dw.com/…/%D0%BD%D1%8D%D0%BD%D1…/av-62688640).
Many thought that “bloodthirsty China will show its aggression and the West will rise up for justice.” But that only happens in movies. In real diplomacy, everything is more complicated and sophisticated.
At the same time, despite all the difficulties, it is necessary to understand the ongoing processes correctly: N. Pelosi’s visit, in essence, will not give Taiwan anything and, in general, will not change its future full-fledged return to China. This is an inevitable historical process, everything depends only on the time factor and the question “when?”.
These days, everyone was guessing and waiting for China’s reaction, so that Beijing would suddenly make a geopolitical false start and make a mistake, like the Kremlin.
However, the Chinese mentality is completely different, and assessments of the situation in the PRC are carried out at a serious level (the second economy in the world has something to lose and this makes one think sensibly).
The expectation of a conflict between the US and China, which was fueled by various media, is an overly simplistic perception of the complex and multi-level relationship between these two large countries. And despite all the longstanding tensions around Taiwan, China has its own understanding of the situation, its own strategy and principles regarding the solution of the Taiwan issue. Indeed, on the scales of history is the achievement of 70 years of successful development of China, or the forceful return of the island, which, in principle, is in the orbit of China’s influence.
The question around the visit of N. Pelosi is different: who outplayed whom in the end?
Or Washington, which seems to confirm the principle of one China and in recent talks with President Xi Jinping, J. Biden reassured his colleague that the Americans adhere to the agreements (https://ria.ru/20220728/tayvan-1805719188.html). Earlier, Joe Biden told reporters that, in the opinion of the US military, Pelosi should not fly to Taiwan. (https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-62328908).
But at the same time, the Speaker of one of the chambers of the US Congress (not the last person in the government of this country) nevertheless went to Taiwan, and official Washington presented a high-profile visit as if it were her personal decision. It seems like Pelosi herself will have to become the “scapegoat” in this ambiguous situation tomorrow. This seems to be her role in the big idea.
Or was Beijing outplaying its competitor, which played along well all these weeks, also reacted very harshly and escalated the situation in the media?
As a result, yesterday the whole world was in suspense watching Pelosi’s plane and China’s response. But in reality, China took it and acted completely differently from what was expected of it (or directed to act in some direction). The “war of nerves” ended unexpectedly calmly and uninterestingly for observers, and China generally reacted very diplomatically, although it announced major military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. In general, Pelosi’s visit will take place against the background of the roar of guns, aircraft maneuvers and other military tricks that should keep the American politician in a certain tension.
As a result, what will happen? Well, speaker Pelosi came to the island of Taiwan, well, she held some kind of negotiations, even at the highest level there. Well, maybe she promised some kind of special support from the American people (although you still need to ask the American people themselves if they care about some kind of Chinese Taiwan, when gasoline prices are rising rapidly inside the United States and with it discontent). By and large, the real price of such promises is well known, for example, Afghanistan, Georgia and now Ukraine and many others. other.
Therefore, in the real life of China and Taiwan, nothing has changed – as their relations were in their hands, they remained. Pelosi herself probably wanted to remain in world diplomatic history, to become the hero of a major international crisis, but somehow it didn’t work out. Apparently, Madame Pelosi herself is very disappointed that a Hollywood blockbuster with her participation in the title role did not happen around the Taiwan issue. N. Pelosi, of course, honestly tried (and we must pay tribute to her courage) to present herself as a daring politician, but as a result, just a big media bubble was born and that’s it.
Although it can be said with a high degree of certainty, tomorrow Madame Pelosi will not admit to her epic failure in Taiwan. And vice versa, upon her return, there will be many interviews with her participation, loud statements about her personal courage, an example of the victory of democracy, etc. Or maybe, according to the classics, Pelosi will write a book (for example, it may even be called “My Victory”) in order to earn a certain capital for retirement, or tomorrow to get a job offer in a cool Washington think tank after she leaves the US Congress one day. Of course, this is beautiful, stylish and very American, but this visit will not go down in the great history of diplomacy. But for Taiwan, in reality, nothing has changed.
These days, the world was very much waiting for a variety of actions, including drastic ones, from China (https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3658546.html), and did not even ask themselves the question: but in principle, why do the Chinese need it?
After all, it was initially clear that this visit by a high-ranking politician from the United States was a common political provocation with far-reaching likely consequences. Yes, and Chinese strategists most likely have long calculated a variety of scenarios for such events. And until the very moment of Pelosi’s plane landing, the whole world expected (and probably, especially in Washington) that against the backdrop of harsh statements by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the Chinese would really fall into the trap set for them.
But China is not in vain actively developing its market of think tanks (there are already more than two thousand analytical structures in the country, the second place in the world), and in global affairs it deliberately relies on analytics and forecasting. As a result, the show according to the American scenario did not work out this time, and Beijing confidently played its strategic game. And now, apparently, they are now sitting in Washington and racking their brains: how and when will China answer them now? And it has now become terra incognita.
And if we look at the situation from the other side, we can see the maturity of China’s foreign policy and its commitment to the declared principles. This is a qualitatively different approach than the “double standards” that certain well-known players adhere to. And China’s diplomatic approach to this situation is understandable: any decision of the Chinese leader will affect not only the fate of 1.4 billion of its citizens, but also have an ambiguous impact on the whole world, given the current role of China in the world system. This is a responsible move that China showed with its global positioning and the idea of a community with a common destiny for mankind. Thus, as a result of an attempt at provocation, Beijing, unexpectedly for many, even benefited from this escalating media crisis.
In general, it turned out just like in the classical science of strategy, where professors and experts like to quote the Chinese word for “challenge” – 挑战, where 挑 means choice, and 战 is war. And in general, this term is interpreted as “a chance to win” or “loss” depending on the tactics you choose and your actions. And Beijing played this 挑战 in the Chinese manner and used its chance to win. And now let the overseas competitor think hard about where exactly the answer will come from, but it seems that the Chinese answer will come one day … and this global plot is really twisting in an interesting direction.
Chine Studies Center,
Nur-Sultan, 2022
Number of shows: 2515
