To date, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region occupies a central role in the strategic development of the People’s Republic of China. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the region has demonstrated steady and progressive development, gradually transforming from a peripheral area into a key cluster in northwest China.
A significant impetus to this process was given by the “Western Development Strategy” (西部大开发), launched in 2000. This initiative provided the institutional and financial foundation for the modernization of China’s western provinces, with Xinjiang receiving priority status due to its natural resources, transit potential, and cultural diversity. At the same time, the region’s strategic importance is largely defined by its geographic location at the crossroads of East and Central Asia. Xinjiang borders eight countries, which makes it highly significant in the context of China’s foreign policy and infrastructure initiatives.
Economic Development of Xinjiang
A combination of institutional, resource-based, and geoeconomic factors has created the conditions for the formation of a balanced and dynamic model of economic growth in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). An analysis of the region’s key economic indicators shows that from 2020 to 2025, the Gross Regional Product (GRP) has maintained a steady upward trend, increasing from 1.38 trillion yuan in 2020 to 2 trillion yuan in 2024. This corresponds to a consistent average annual growth rate of 6–7%, which significantly exceeds the national average of 5.2%.
Such growth is largely driven by structural diversification of the economy under China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which focuses on the creation of modern industrial clusters, including renewable energy and high-tech equipment manufacturing.
A key factor in maintaining stability remains the high level of capital investment in infrastructure. This is reflected in the implementation of major infrastructure projects, including the construction of new railways and highways, the modernization of energy facilities, and the expansion of industrial zones. A flagship infrastructure achievement has been the completion of the railway loop around the Taklamakan Desert, with a critical section—Hotan–Ruoqiang—put into operation in 2022. This significantly improved connectivity in the southern regions, which had previously experienced logistical isolation.
A significant institutional shift occurred in November 2023 with the establishment of the first pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ), with key hubs in Ürümqi, Kashgar, and Khorgos. This marked a transition toward a more sustainable, export-oriented development model for the region. Notably, from January to September 2024, the volume of foreign trade reached 130.5 billion yuan, while the total trade turnover in bonded zones amounted to 132.6 billion yuan—representing 41.1% of Xinjiang’s overall foreign trade.
The growth of the digital sector also plays an important role in the region’s economic development. This is evident in the expansion of 5G networks, the development of industrial internet platforms, the creation of specialized digital parks, and the growth of e-commerce in remote areas. In 2021, Xinjiang’s digital economy reached a value of 425.6 billion yuan. Additionally, the successful hosting of the 8th China–Eurasia Expo in Ürümqi, during which contracts worth over 610 billion yuan were signed, confirmed the region’s rising investment appeal.
Thus, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) is emerging as a balanced growth center with industrial, logistical, and digital specializations, strengthening its pivotal role in the Belt and Road Initiative and expanding its potential for integration with international partners, including Central Asian countries.
Social Development of Xinjiang
XUAR’s social policy is implemented with a focus on comprehensive equalization and encompasses key areas. One of its most notable achievements was the complete eradication of extreme poverty by the end of 2020. More than 2.3 million people were lifted out of poverty through a combination of relocation programs, infrastructure investments, and access to vocational training.
Positive developments are also evident in the education sector, where universal 9-year compulsory education has been achieved, along with voluntary 12-year schooling. The rise in academic mobility is reflected in the growing number of international students—particularly from Central Asian countries—enrolled in XUAR universities, strengthening the region’s role as an educational hub for cross-border cooperation.
Significant progress has also been made in healthcare, where a three-tier system has been established to serve both rural and urban areas. Leading medical institutions in the region have been upgraded to “3A” status, the highest national classification, and basic medical insurance now covers 20.9 million people. This includes special support programs focused on maternity care and employment.
Significant attention is being paid to job creation and employment stimulation. In 2024 alone, over 460,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment rate remains at a consistently low level—around 5.2%, in line with national averages—thanks to employment programs and vocational training initiatives.
An equally important focus of social policy is the development of mechanisms for interethnic integration, considering the region’s rich ethnocultural diversity, with representatives of more than 40 ethnic groups residing in Xinjiang. In 2023, authorities launched a series of pilot programs for “ethnic group integration” in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, which included the development of mixed residential neighborhoods, cultural and recreational centers, and public educational activities.
Taken together, these measures indicate a shift from targeted social assistance toward building a sustainable and inclusive model of social development for the region.
The Role of XUAR in Kazakhstan–China Relations
The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) serves as a functional driver for aligning the strategic interests of China and Kazakhstan—a role recognized at the highest political levels in both countries. Leaders Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Xi Jinping have repeatedly emphasized the region’s importance as a symbol of mutual strategic trust and as a “bridge between China and Central Asia,” providing a platform for linking the Belt and Road Initiative with national development strategies.
The central hub of this integration is the Khorgos International Centre for Cross-Border Cooperation (ICBC), which operates as one of the region’s largest logistics nodes. Since its inception, over 45,000 freight trains have traversed the “China–Central Asia” and “China–Europe” routes. As of May 2025, the total cargo throughput had exceeded 5 million tons. This momentum is further supported by political leadership in XUAR. Notably, XUAR Party Secretary Ma Xingrui highlighted the region’s key coordinating role in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative in the Central Asian direction, reinforcing the vision previously outlined by the President of China. In parallel, Khorgos Party Secretary Pan Xi stressed the strategic importance of the Khorgos hub as China’s western gateway for deepening cooperation with Kazakhstan.
It is worth noting that since 2023, cooperation between Kazakhstan and XUAR has entered a phase of qualitative deepening, evolving into a comprehensive and multidimensional dialogue. A landmark moment was the visit of the President of Kazakhstan to Ürümqi on October 18, 2023, during which the coordinating role of the region in regional relations was emphasized. Special attention was also given to strengthening the humanitarian dimension, including tourism, cultural exchange, and preparations for the Year of Kazakh Tourism in China. This meeting laid the groundwork for further expansion of bilateral engagement.
In March 2024, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Erkin Tuniyaz, Chairman of the People’s Government of XUAR, in Astana to discuss the integration of transport and trade projects, as well as the need to remove trade and logistical barriers. However, the economic dimension of cooperation was given concrete substance during a bilateral meeting in December 2024 in Ürümqi between Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin and XUAR Party Secretary Ma Xingrui. The meeting resulted in agreements to double bilateral trade volume to $100 billion, to launch a multimodal corridor via the transboundary Irtysh and Ili rivers, and to accelerate the modernization of the Dostyk–Alashankou border checkpoint.
Overall, at the level of concrete projects, the partnership spans a wide range of areas. In the logistics sector, as of early 2025, the design has been completed and construction has begun on the Dostyk–Moyinty railway section, with a planned capacity of up to 60 trains per day. Additionally, modernization of the Dostyk border checkpoint is underway, aiming to increase the annual flow of container trains along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) to 2,000 trains by 2029.
Under agreements between Kazakhstan’s national railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) and China Railway Corporation, a phased increase in train traffic through the “Altynkol–Khorgos” border crossing (from 8 to 15 trains per day) and the “Dostyk–Alashankou” crossing (from 14 to 28 trains per day) is scheduled to begin in March and July 2025, respectively, in order to boost Kazakhstan’s export capacity.
Additionally, a decision was made to allocate 1 billion yuan (approximately $137 million) for the construction of a transport and logistics hub in the Almaty agglomeration. An initiative was also put forward to establish a joint commission for coordinating multimodal transport, with participation from relevant government agencies. All these developments signal a shift from mere infrastructural interconnection to the formation of a coordinated production and logistics ecosystem, in which XUAR plays a pivotal coordinating role.
In the agricultural sector, a bilateral Agreement on the Export and Import of Agricultural Products was signed in 2024, involving Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture and agribusinesses from XUAR. Additionally, an initiative was proposed to establish a Kazakhstan–XUAR–Hong Kong Cooperation Council to coordinate agro-investments. This proposal is grounded in an existing base of 145 active projects worth $38 billion and over 5,000 joint ventures.
Considerable attention is also being devoted to the humanitarian and educational dimensions of the partnership. In 2024, the XUAR government awarded 50 educational scholarships to Kazakhstani citizens and launched a joint remote sensing laboratory in Almaty, established by Kazakh National Technical University (KazNTU) and the Xinjiang Institute of Geography.
In 2025, as part of the “Digital Forum,” a memorandum of cooperation was signed in the fields of AI and robotics between Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry (MDDIAI), the Chinese company AgiBot, and several Kazakhstani universities. This underscores XUAR’s role not only as a transit corridor but also as a humanitarian and technological bridge between the two countries.
Thus, the growing political dialogue, practical coordination, and multi-level project activities confirm XUAR’s transformation into a key driver of Eurasian partnership and integration.
Socio-Economic Challenges in the Region’s Development
Despite the positive trajectory of socio-economic development, a number of long-term structural challenges continue to demand sustained efforts to ensure Xinjiang’s stability and inclusivity. Notably, XUAR still experiences persistent regional disparities: the northern areas—such as Ürümqi, Karamay, and Shihezi—are characterized by high levels of industrialization, while the southern territories—such as Kashgar, Hotan, and Aksu—remain relatively underdeveloped socio-economically. This gap, rooted in the historically uneven distribution of infrastructure, has entrenched a “center–periphery” model, necessitating a systemic response that includes priority investments, support for small businesses, and development of human capital.
Additionally, maintaining sustainable interethnic harmony remains a critical internal challenge for the region. Ethnocultural diversity—especially in southern Xinjiang, where Uyghurs, Kazakhs, Hui, Kyrgyz, and other ethnic groups live alongside Han Chinese—requires a delicate balance between social cohesion and the preservation of cultural identity. Within the broader framework of the policy promoting a unified national identity under the concept of “Zhonghua Minzu” (Chinese Nation), there are ongoing risks of social tension if the specific cultural characteristics and needs of various communities are not adequately acknowledged and addressed.
Additionally, the region faces the risk of reputational vulnerability in light of external criticism of certain aspects of its domestic policy. Specifically, de-radicalization measures implemented between 2017 and 2019 have drawn concern from international human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which have raised issues regarding potential rights restrictions and conditions of detention.
These narratives have formed the basis for a series of sanctions imposed by Western countries, including import restrictions on products from XUAR, which could hinder the region’s foreign economic activities. In response, there is an ongoing need to engage in sustained diplomatic dialogue and clarification efforts to address these concerns and mitigate their impact on international cooperation.
Prospects for Socio-Economic Development
Amid complex challenges and Xinjiang’s growing involvement in global processes, the region possesses the potential to develop a balanced model of sustainable growth. This model would be based on structural diversification, integration into transregional value chains, and enhanced social inclusion. In this context, special emphasis is expected to be placed on reducing territorial disparities in the southern areas by localizing processing industries, supporting small businesses, and stimulating employment.
In addition, in response to persistent ethnoreligious tensions—especially in areas predominantly inhabited by Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities—there is a growing need to further develop mechanisms for inclusive ethnic policies. It is crucial to ensure that the formation of the unified national identity (Zhonghua Minzu) is accompanied by the preservation of cultural diversity, greater participation of ethnic groups in socio-economic life, and strengthened horizontal dialogue.
In the long term, a key focus will be enhancing the resilience of Xinjiang’s foreign trade by expanding partnerships with friendly markets, where product origin requirements are less politicized. Simultaneously, it is advisable to promote regional certification mechanisms that ensure compliance with international supply chain standards—including formats such as “zero forced labor supply chains.”
One such example is the “Xinjiang Quality” certification program (新疆品质), launched by regional authorities to label products. Over time, it would be strategic to consolidate this approach into a unified “Xinjiang Certified” platform under the supervision of the central government and relevant industry associations. This would help build international trust, reduce reputational risks, and support the region’s sustainable economic integration into global markets.
Thus, Xinjiang demonstrates strong potential for sustainable development, shaping a model based on an open economy, inclusive growth, and the strengthening of interregional connectivity. At the same time, the expansion of ties with Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries provides additional momentum for cooperation, positioning the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region as a strategic hub for building a unified economic framework grounded in long-term partnership and joint development.
China Studies Centre
